0xb0a76d7139a3f050434768f991839519983fa468
- Realised P&L
- $2.23
- Volume
- $148.48
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $12.62
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July? · Yes | 0.511 | 0.537 | $2.10 | +$0.10 |
| Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July? · No | 0.530 | 0.545 | $2.06 | +$0.06 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 6? · Down | 0.410 | 0.415 | $2.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.665 | $1.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.165 | $1.57 | −$0.43 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.215 | $1.34 | −$0.66 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.430 | 0.165 | $0.77 | −$1.23 |
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $85 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.145 | $0.67 | −$1.33 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.09at 0.220Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$5.41at 0.270Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during July Press Conference?
- +$4.09at 0.215Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?
- +$1.34at 0.560Will Trump say "Toyota" during Michigan remarks?
- +$1.04at 0.660Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 00:07 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 6? | BUY | 0.4099999446 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 16:07 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 08:07 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 00:06 | Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July? | BUY | 0.5299998781 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 16:06 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July? | BUY | 0.5109999175 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 08:06 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999286 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 00:05 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $85 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 16:05 | Will Atmos Energy (ATO) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.6899997205 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 08:05 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $212 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 23:32 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999286 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 15:31 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July? | BUY | 0.2399999184 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 07:21 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 23:16 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999164 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 23:10 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899996998 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 15:01 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999184 | $2.00 |