0xaefe800ac3177db2a6ceb13fe8e3bb2f0edfba5d
- Realised P&L
- $0.47
- Volume
- $19.99
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $8.43
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? · Yes | 0.650 | 1.000 | $1.54 | +$0.54 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $132 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.997 | $1.51 | +$0.51 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? · No | 0.796 | 1.000 | $1.26 | +$0.26 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · No | 0.780 | 0.815 | $1.04 | +$0.04 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.815 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.675 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.730 | 0.405 | $0.55 | −$0.45 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $385 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.235 | $0.55 | −$0.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.00at 0.499Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 03:31 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $385 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.429999828 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 19:30 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 19:30 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 10:01 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $132 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.66 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 21:17 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 01:26 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 17:05 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7959992995 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 15:13 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.65 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 02:35 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 18:28 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.498999505 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 10:25 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 07-30 17:13 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |