jagernout9555
0xadae9094be7bd5e19c58068d4d48b9dabd1b74d7
- Realised P&L
- $-141.11
- Volume
- $2.8k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $188.40
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration60.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.640 | $87.69 | −$12.31 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? · No | 0.870 | 0.815 | $46.83 | −$3.17 |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.336 | 0.262 | $38.90 | −$11.10 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.330 | $6.60 | −$3.40 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.075 | $5.77 | −$4.23 |
| Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.114 | 0.029 | $2.60 | −$7.40 |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? · Yes | 0.252 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.064 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$30.00at 0.500Starmer out by June 26, 2026?
- +$19.24at 0.356Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
- +$-1.69at 0.590Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$-2.00at 0.500New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
- +$-2.46at 0.487New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 15:12 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.8699999988 | $50.00 |
| 07-11 18:28 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.252499995 | $25.00 |
| 06-28 20:02 | Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7298302715 | $100.00 |
| 06-28 19:35 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1299999902 | $10.00 |
| 06-28 19:34 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | BUY | 0.5099999986 | $50.00 |
| 06-28 19:33 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | SELL | 0.4936280031 | $69.24 |
| 06-22 20:56 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | SELL | 0.48 | $48.00 |
| 06-22 20:56 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | SELL | 0.4631339503 | $47.54 |
| 06-22 20:31 | Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1135371079 | $10.00 |
| 06-22 20:29 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $50.00 |
| 06-22 20:29 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.4870775309 | $50.00 |
| 06-22 20:21 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | BUY | 0.356435641 | $50.00 |
| 06-22 20:19 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | SELL | 0.6442348894 | $82.39 |
| 06-21 17:14 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | BUY | 0.7818892575 | $100.00 |
| 06-20 16:40 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $10.00 |