marlboroman2
0xaab674486bc938bfad6a7473448ea2a4f9b2607e
- Realised P&L
- $-2.0k
- Volume
- $1.05M
- Markets traded
- 7,835
- Open portfolio
- $7.6k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded7,835
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- BlockerProfit concentration67.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration71.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed rate hike in 2026? · Yes | 0.635 | 0.675 | $5.4k | +$316.10 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.813 | 0.887 | $1.3k | +$109.48 |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? · Yes | 0.507 | 0.630 | $453.81 | +$88.22 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · No | 0.337 | 0.190 | $126.77 | −$98.31 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? · No | 0.348 | 0.095 | $95.00 | −$252.99 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.195 | $78.00 | −$38.00 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No | 0.364 | 0.194 | $77.60 | −$68.00 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.195 | 0.205 | $41.00 | +$2.00 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 · Over | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$33.00 |
| Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$45.00 |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$938.31at 0.300Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
- +$435.78at 0.445Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET
- +$415.00at 0.170Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-03-08?
- +$380.00at 0.240Will Blackburn Rovers FC win on 2026-03-14?
- +$365.00at 0.270Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2026-03-07?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-23 02:56 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.66 | $3.30 |
| 07-23 02:56 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.66 | $11.22 |
| 07-14 04:45 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $20.00 |
| 06-23 17:23 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $120.00 |
| 06-23 13:54 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.59 | $59.00 |
| 06-23 08:58 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.58 | $116.00 |
| 06-23 07:26 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.58 | $116.00 |
| 06-23 07:25 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.246 | $369.00 |
| 06-22 16:28 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.58 | $174.00 |
| 06-22 13:57 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.245 | $122.50 |
| 06-22 09:38 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $250.48 |
| 06-22 05:59 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.61 | $122.00 |
| 06-22 03:31 | Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.21 | $109.20 |
| 06-22 03:30 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.61 | $152.50 |
| 06-22 01:07 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.61 | $122.00 |