DustyBin
0xa4d055153459c515ee6572db374215f660b6995a
- Realised P&L
- $-74.39
- Volume
- $1.8k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $53.75
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- CautionOpen concentration50.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.135 | $27.00 | −$11.00 |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.380 | $22.80 | −$4.20 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.085 | 0.040 | $3.95 | −$4.55 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.94 |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? · No | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
| Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.075 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.50 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.70 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.50 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-25 17:10 | US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | BUY | 0.038 | $4.94 |
| 04-20 16:55 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.08 | $8.00 |
| 04-20 16:55 | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY | 0.037 | $3.70 |
| 04-14 06:45 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.43 | $21.50 |
| 04-12 05:23 | Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.075 | $2.82 |
| 04-11 16:37 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $17.02 |
| 04-11 16:25 | Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.009 | $0.13 |