fatalisty
0xa2f0ff6026662d63db70d30f884996a8a036565e
- Realised P&L
- $-34.75
- Volume
- $5.1k
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $67.11
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration83.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)21.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$98.37at 0.046US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$11.06at 0.180Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
- +$6.72at 0.472US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
- +$1.18at 0.170Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
- +$-0.63at 0.016Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-21 09:09 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $1.94 |
| 04-21 09:07 | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.79 | $16.72 |
| 04-20 08:03 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $7.45 |
| 04-20 08:02 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? | SELL | 0.044 | $2.45 |
| 04-19 22:06 | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.4724409348 | $10.00 |
| 04-19 21:36 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.1099999853 | $6.12 |
| 04-19 18:59 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.59 | $29.79 |
| 04-19 18:50 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | SELL | 0.5 | $17.27 |
| 04-15 20:42 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | SELL | 0.08 | $9.02 |
| 04-12 22:07 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | BUY | 0.1799999792 | $6.22 |
| 04-12 19:18 | Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999692 | $5.00 |
| 04-12 01:10 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3960533286 | $40.00 |
| 04-12 01:10 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | SELL | 0.21 | $40.34 |
| 04-08 22:59 | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999874 | $5.00 |
| 04-08 22:59 | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.1674820144 | $5.82 |