0x9b7cc116daf6fedd506f63b75a259d3f313c1791
- Realised P&L
- $6.80
- Volume
- $113.40
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $18.35
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration15.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · No | 0.640 | 0.910 | $2.84 | +$0.84 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.895 | $2.24 | +$0.24 |
| Will Atmos Energy (ATO) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.705 | $2.04 | +$0.04 |
| Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? · No | 0.580 | 0.645 | $1.97 | +$0.20 |
| Will Under Armour (UAA) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.520 | $1.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July? · No | 0.490 | 0.463 | $1.89 | −$0.11 |
| Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July? · No | 0.640 | 0.550 | $1.72 | −$0.28 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · No | 0.390 | 0.330 | $1.69 | −$0.31 |
| Will Trump say "Epic Fury" this week? · No | 0.740 | 0.445 | $1.20 | −$0.80 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.560 | 0.165 | $0.50 | −$1.21 |
| Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on August 5? · Up | 0.530 | 0.085 | $0.32 | −$1.68 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.00at 0.250Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner?
- +$1.95at 0.350Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during Michigan remarks?
- +$1.86at 0.380Will Trump say "Stop Calling Me" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
- +$1.70at 0.540Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $208 Week of August 3 2026?
- +$1.28at 0.580Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 16:28 | Will Under Armour (UAA) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.5399999784 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 08:25 | Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.5299998781 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 00:20 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899998908 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 16:19 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July? | BUY | 0.4899999534 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 08:15 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 00:14 | Will Trump say "Epic Fury" this week? | BUY | 0.74 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 16:14 | Will Atmos Energy (ATO) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 08:13 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $208 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999784 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 00:10 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299999181 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 16:08 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999048 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 06:38 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July? | BUY | 0.6499999025 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 22:35 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.64 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 13:20 | Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July? | BUY | 0.64 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 02:00 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $1.83 |
| 08-01 01:59 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.5799998886 | $1.77 |