0x9b32985965d58096d1b9cdfa7d1ff10190208f3b
- Realised P&L
- $2.12
- Volume
- $98.86
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $12.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.215 | 0.354 | $3.30 | +$1.30 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.999 | $2.70 | +$0.70 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.245 | $2.13 | +$0.13 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.735 | $1.86 | −$0.14 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $330 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.675 | $1.73 | −$0.27 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.070 | $0.47 | −$1.53 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · No | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.74at 0.420Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting?
- +$1.53at 0.570Will Ares Capital (ARCC) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$1.53at 0.500Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $70 Week of July 27 2026?
- +$1.19at 0.610Will Warsh say "Projection" during July Press Conference?
- +$1.13at 0.630Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 16:26 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.7899996998 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 08:25 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $330 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 00:24 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.229999916 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 16:23 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on August 3? | BUY | 0.8089998083 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 08:22 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.299999925 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 00:13 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.214999929 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 16:12 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 07:09 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599998944 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 22:58 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999422 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 14:02 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.74 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 01:22 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 17:20 | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in June? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 07:52 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-30 15:24 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-29 18:14 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5019999699 | $1.00 |