0x98d7b592655f65ed41c100a492f4e311d878f519
- Realised P&L
- $5.40
- Volume
- $95.89
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $19.20
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.585 | $3.34 | +$1.34 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.992 | $3.05 | +$1.05 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.895 | $2.45 | +$0.45 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.625 | $2.23 | +$0.27 |
| Will Trump say "Epic Fury" this week? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.265 | $1.96 | −$0.04 |
| Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.340 | $1.89 | −$0.11 |
| Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July? · No | 0.750 | 0.675 | $1.80 | −$0.20 |
| Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July? · No | 0.670 | 0.610 | $1.70 | −$0.17 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.105 | $0.75 | −$1.25 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.003 | $0.02 | −$1.98 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.00at 0.500Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $284 Week of August 3 2026?
- +$1.71at 0.430Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting?
- +$1.47at 0.520Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?
- +$1.19at 0.610Will Warsh say "Projection" during July Press Conference?
- +$1.07at 0.650Will Trump say "Iran" or "Israel" 10+ times during cabinet meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 07:58 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999208 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 23:58 | Will Trump say "Epic Fury" this week? | BUY | 0.2699999163 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 15:57 | Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 07:56 | Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $284 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 21:49 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.34999993 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 13:45 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 05:15 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 05:15 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999048 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 21:08 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 13:08 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.6499999025 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 03:37 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.91 |
| 07-31 19:37 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-31 19:37 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999566 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 11:35 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-30 19:07 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |