0x92fF01426aEfB5382e6c7a2aeAd585beC61F94CE-1771272855786
0x92ff01426aefb5382e6c7a2aead585bec61f94ce
- Realised P&L
- $2.6k
- Volume
- $70.7k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $25.0k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)83.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No | 0.887 | 0.935 | $19.5k | +$991.07 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? · No | 0.913 | 0.845 | $4.5k | −$362.31 |
| Will at least 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.962 | 0.963 | $390.89 | +$0.55 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30? · No | 0.914 | 0.905 | $345.09 | −$3.51 |
| Will at least 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.940 | 0.931 | $265.48 | −$2.42 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.894Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$510.52at 0.872Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
- +$129.25at 0.956Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$85.29at 0.950Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$71.08at 0.770 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 17:24 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $2.4k |
| 07-31 17:21 | Will at least 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.968 | $72.60 |
| 07-31 17:21 | Will at least 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.967 | $9.67 |
| 07-31 17:18 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30? | BUY | 0.92 | $9.81 |
| 07-31 17:17 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30? | BUY | 0.91 | $105.24 |
| 07-31 17:17 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30? | BUY | 0.92 | $138.00 |
| 07-31 17:16 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30? | BUY | 0.91 | $95.55 |
| 07-31 17:12 | Will at least 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $267.90 |
| 07-31 17:09 | Will at least 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $308.07 |
| 07-23 19:36 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.89 | $1.2k |
| 07-23 19:35 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.989 | $591.17 |
| 07-23 19:34 | Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? | SELL | 0.912 | $40.62 |
| 07-23 19:34 | Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? | SELL | 0.913 | $11.90 |
| 07-23 15:00 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.88 | $623.42 |
| 07-17 13:40 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.89 | $636.17 |