0x92839f05761afba4690801f900f4dd40a289819e
- Realised P&L
- $7.87
- Volume
- $79.19
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $17.18
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar9.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.700 | $3.26 | +$1.26 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.999 | $2.63 | +$0.63 |
| Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? · No | 0.590 | 0.645 | $2.20 | +$0.19 |
| Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.280 | $2.15 | +$0.15 |
| Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%? · No | 0.770 | 0.765 | $1.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $146 Week of August 3 2026? · No | 0.420 | 0.385 | $1.83 | −$0.17 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $330 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.675 | $1.73 | −$0.27 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.380 | 0.265 | $1.39 | −$0.61 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.41at 0.370Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$1.96at 0.440Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of July 27 2026?
- +$1.28at 0.580Will Warsh say "Independence" during July Press Conference?
- +$0.92at 0.670Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $62 Week of July 27 2026?
- +$0.74at 0.730Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 16:52 | Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%? | BUY | 0.7699997035 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 08:32 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $330 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 00:31 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July? | BUY | 0.2599999272 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 16:30 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.3799999468 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 08:30 | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $146 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.4199999454 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 23:30 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999286 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 23:29 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999112 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 15:29 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 06:49 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 22:42 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.7599998024 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 13:16 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.7799996958 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 03:51 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-31 19:51 | Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? | BUY | 0.5899999941 | $2.01 |
| 07-31 11:49 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5019999626 | $1.53 |
| 07-30 14:58 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999281 | $1.56 |