ddw2222
0x91ca1a145b740e62bc521cfb4a6da73d4e260957
- Realised P&L
- $-631.66
- Volume
- $192.5k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $680.63
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration62.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.013 | $435.50 | −$244.72 |
| Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.077 | $245.13 | +$55.35 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? · No | 0.860 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$33.44at 0.450US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
- +$20.05at 0.250US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
- +$-12.00at 0.012US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?
- +$-35.79at 0.005Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
- +$-39.94at 0.120China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 05:40 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.015 | $55.74 |
| 07-31 05:40 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.015 | $56.76 |
| 07-21 08:02 | Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | SELL | 0.073 | $3.72 |
| 07-21 06:44 | Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | SELL | 0.075 | $3.45 |
| 07-02 01:38 | Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $399.84 |
| 07-02 01:35 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.018 | $4.99 |
| 07-01 11:19 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.023 | $73.75 |
| 06-30 08:53 | Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $60.00 |
| 06-19 06:09 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.004 | $43.35 |
| 06-18 15:00 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.005 | $50.00 |
| 06-12 17:35 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.006 | $15.91 |
| 06-09 19:14 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.007 | $20.00 |
| 06-09 19:13 | Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | SELL | 0.01 | $12.19 |
| 06-07 13:56 | Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | SELL | 0.0106289226 | $25.91 |
| 06-07 13:51 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.009 | $5.93 |