PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

luck518

0x8ffc0893f66f69aecce344d05f02fd48347c9529

Realised P&L
$-97.10
Volume
$78.6k
Markets traded
18
Open portfolio
$7.0k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded18
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration37.6% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample11 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)90.9%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration51.3% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-31 16:44Iran leadership change by December 31?SELL0.79$1.5k
07-31 16:42Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?SELL0.69$677.84
07-30 16:32Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?SELL0.7001699717$741.48
07-30 16:29Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?SELL0.72$602.64
07-30 16:29Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?SELL0.73$316.82
07-27 20:17Will Discord’s market cap be between $11B and $14B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?BUY0.0544978108$8.59
07-27 20:15Will Discord’s market cap be between $14B and $17B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?BUY0.047367971$9.53
07-27 20:13Will Discord’s market cap be between $14B and $17B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?BUY0.024$1.90
07-23 14:54Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?SELL0.38$432.44
07-23 13:37Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?SELL0.39$842.01
07-23 12:32Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?BUY0.2493868382$223.70
07-23 12:31Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?BUY0.275322095$129.84
07-23 07:19Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?SELL0.41$1.0k
07-23 07:18Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?BUY0.3$62.10
07-22 12:43Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?BUY0.256$53.76