luck518
0x8ffc0893f66f69aecce344d05f02fd48347c9529
- Realised P&L
- $-97.10
- Volume
- $78.6k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $7.0k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration37.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.393 | 0.425 | $3.6k | +$272.53 |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? · Yes | 0.312 | 0.410 | $1.4k | +$331.36 |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? · No | 0.494 | 0.445 | $1.2k | −$138.78 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.105 | $588.97 | −$252.42 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.165 | $169.95 | +$5.15 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.194 | $23.03 | +$5.18 |
| Will Discord’s market cap be between $11B and $14B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.054 | 0.066 | $10.40 | +$1.81 |
| Will Discord’s market cap be between $14B and $17B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.041 | 0.025 | $7.12 | −$4.31 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$214.83at 0.641Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
- +$138.00at 0.460Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
- +$100.00at 0.765Iran leadership change by December 31?
- +$63.00at 0.530Fed rate hike in 2026?
- +$25.79at 0.275Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 16:44 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL | 0.79 | $1.5k |
| 07-31 16:42 | Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.69 | $677.84 |
| 07-30 16:32 | Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.7001699717 | $741.48 |
| 07-30 16:29 | Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.72 | $602.64 |
| 07-30 16:29 | Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.73 | $316.82 |
| 07-27 20:17 | Will Discord’s market cap be between $11B and $14B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.0544978108 | $8.59 |
| 07-27 20:15 | Will Discord’s market cap be between $14B and $17B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.047367971 | $9.53 |
| 07-27 20:13 | Will Discord’s market cap be between $14B and $17B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.024 | $1.90 |
| 07-23 14:54 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | SELL | 0.38 | $432.44 |
| 07-23 13:37 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | SELL | 0.39 | $842.01 |
| 07-23 12:32 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? | BUY | 0.2493868382 | $223.70 |
| 07-23 12:31 | Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? | BUY | 0.275322095 | $129.84 |
| 07-23 07:19 | Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | SELL | 0.41 | $1.0k |
| 07-23 07:18 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | BUY | 0.3 | $62.10 |
| 07-22 12:43 | Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.256 | $53.76 |