misko1
0x8f2f04f6a10a8ffadb8b39999b5b3ef40adeb226
- Realised P&L
- $38.5k
- Volume
- $7.46M
- Markets traded
- 459
- Open portfolio
- $7.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded459
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.885 | $3.5k | +$1.3k |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? · No | 0.910 | 0.955 | $1.9k | +$90.00 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.875 | $1.8k | −$10.00 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? · No | 0.662 | 0.925 | $310.96 | +$88.25 |
| Will "The Odyssey" 4th Weekend Box Office be at least 32m? · No | 0.440 | 0.535 | $28.66 | +$5.09 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.540 | 0.545 | $4.97 | +$0.05 |
| UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card) · Belal Muhammad | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$196.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$36.9kat 0.032Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
- +$7.4kat 0.664MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
- +$6.2kat 0.813Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?
- +$5.8kat 0.855Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?
- +$5.1kat 0.981Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 03:19 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.9444285714 | $33.05 |
| 08-02 03:19 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.7106120051 | $840.77 |
| 08-02 02:46 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.5902032336 | $468.72 |
| 08-01 07:59 | Iran full airspace closure by August 15? | BUY | 0.69 | $1.4k |
| 07-31 19:32 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.93 | $83.70 |
| 07-31 19:32 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | SELL | 0.006 | $3.00 |
| 07-31 18:13 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $640.00 |
| 07-31 18:11 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | SELL | 0.989 | $2.9k |
| 07-31 18:10 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $188.60 |
| 07-31 18:09 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 07-29 12:37 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | SELL | 0.078 | $26.94 |
| 07-28 20:53 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $201.50 |
| 07-28 12:30 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $262.50 |
| 07-28 12:27 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.63 | $583.61 |
| 07-28 11:55 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $373.17 |