KaraThompson3479
0x8e5772a60fbe7880466429c73719dfe0845b6c04
- Realised P&L
- $-1.3k
- Volume
- $142.0k
- Markets traded
- 245
- Open portfolio
- $1.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded245
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration66.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5 · Under | 0.810 | 0.675 | $688.50 | −$137.70 |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? · Anthropic | 0.600 | 0.895 | $265.81 | +$87.61 |
| Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? · No | 0.790 | 1.000 | $48.00 | +$10.08 |
| Will New England Revolution win on 2026-03-07? · No | 0.800 | 0.625 | $35.00 | −$9.80 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.071 | 0.886 | $0.89 | +$0.82 |
| Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.52 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$480.82at 0.230Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
- +$316.65at 0.211Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?
- +$309.27at 0.230Will "Epstein" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
- +$179.63at 0.170Will Deportivo Pereira win on 2026-02-05?
- +$139.46at 0.118Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-11 01:30 | Will New England Revolution win on 2026-03-07? | BUY | 0.8 | $44.80 |
| 03-24 07:38 | Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in March 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $3.06 |
| 03-24 07:37 | Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in March 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $10.92 |
| 03-24 07:35 | Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in March 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $12.24 |
| 03-24 07:34 | Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in March 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $13.62 |
| 03-24 07:32 | Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in March 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $22.44 |
| 03-24 07:31 | Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in March 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $6.90 |
| 03-23 03:22 | Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in March 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $172.95 |
| 03-22 01:42 | Will Ninjas in Pyjamas qualify to IEM Cologne Major 2026? | SELL | 0.32 | $173.12 |
| 03-20 08:19 | Will Ninjas in Pyjamas qualify to IEM Cologne Major 2026? | BUY | 0.57 | $308.37 |
| 03-14 06:30 | New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.81 | $826.20 |
| 03-11 11:04 | Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | SELL | 0.67 | $213.73 |
| 03-11 11:03 | Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | SELL | 0.67 | $144.72 |
| 03-11 10:34 | Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $149.48 |
| 03-06 09:54 | Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $179.78 |