Wizard-of-Alt
0x8c7e1921834f85289f7074371dbf13b3dd225b88
- Realised P&L
- $-337.07
- Volume
- $12.1k
- Markets traded
- 66
- Open portfolio
- $47.71
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded66
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)2.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration95.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? · No | 0.441 | 1.000 | $45.38 | +$25.38 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? · Yes | 0.169 | 0.053 | $1.17 | −$2.55 |
| Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.003 | $0.64 | −$4.36 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.026 | $0.53 | −$1.47 |
| Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$42.08at 0.143Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?
- +$15.31at 0.173Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 14?
- +$8.06at 0.380First to 5k: Gold or ETH?
- +$7.69at 0.230Will Burnley FC win on 2025-10-26?
- +$7.00at 0.300Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 1PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-19 15:38 | Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | BUY | 0.1426326042 | $7.00 |
| 12-19 15:37 | Will Michael van Gerwen win the PDC World Darts Championship? | BUY | 0.0789999325 | $1.00 |
| 12-15 19:06 | Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.012204281 | $1.00 |
| 12-15 19:05 | Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.0043211477 | $1.00 |
| 12-15 19:05 | No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.0273327024 | $10.00 |
| 12-11 19:20 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? | BUY | 0.0109999892 | $1.00 |
| 12-11 19:19 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? | BUY | 0.0109999892 | $1.00 |
| 12-11 19:19 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? | BUY | 0.0109999892 | $1.00 |
| 12-11 19:16 | Will Michael van Gerwen win the PDC World Darts Championship? | BUY | 0.0769999348 | $1.00 |
| 12-11 19:15 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? | BUY | 0.0101527529 | $1.00 |
| 12-10 18:56 | Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference? | BUY | 0.15 | $3.00 |
| 12-10 18:56 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.004 | $2.00 |
| 12-07 13:40 | Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | BUY | 0.218999968 | $5.00 |
| 12-07 12:48 | Will Oscar Piastri finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? | BUY | 0.1699999476 | $2.50 |
| 12-07 12:48 | Will West Ham win on 2025-12-07? | BUY | 0.1799999525 | $2.50 |