0x8ac9b77a8e794ef800f6674af76752d8ca763b0e
- Realised P&L
- $-8.21
- Volume
- $71.90
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $10.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-11.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.972 | $2.46 | +$0.46 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.605 | $2.16 | +$0.16 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.825 | $2.14 | +$0.14 |
| Will Figma (FIG) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.650 | $1.86 | −$0.14 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.525 | $1.52 | −$0.48 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? · No | 0.360 | 0.009 | $0.05 | −$1.95 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.86at 0.380Will Trump say "Stop Calling Me" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
- +$1.74at 0.420Will MGM Resorts (MGM) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$1.16at 0.620Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
- +$0.80at 0.711Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 02:07 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.5599999664 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 17:58 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699997035 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 08:55 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 00:29 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999289 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 16:28 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.3599999208 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 02:33 | Will Figma (FIG) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.699999755 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 18:31 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 10:30 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999566 | $2.00 |
| 07-29 19:46 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.46 | $1.61 |
| 07-28 20:28 | Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 10+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.46 | $1.61 |
| 07-28 10:13 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-27 22:42 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $123 Week of July 27 2026? | BUY | 0.6599998949 | $2.01 |
| 07-27 14:05 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5019999626 | $1.53 |
| 07-27 01:39 | Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 31? | BUY | 0.7399999632 | $2.01 |
| 07-26 13:39 | Will Trump say "Stop Calling Me" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | BUY | 0.38 | $1.14 |