v-het
0x7c404c781f5d118e2825f90b70c8e43f58ec2935
- Realised P&L
- $-32.54
- Volume
- $1.9k
- Markets traded
- 44
- Open portfolio
- $74.73
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded44
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample39 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration79.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing Ever Happens: August · Nothing | 0.830 | 0.820 | $59.29 | −$0.71 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · No | 0.840 | 0.915 | $5.45 | +$0.45 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.890 | 0.925 | $5.20 | +$0.20 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No | 0.904 | 0.960 | $4.80 | +$0.28 |
| Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 5? · Up | 0.680 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$70.01 |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance · France | 0.555 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 13? · Up | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.50 |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$29.37at 0.630Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
- +$15.09at 0.590Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4?
- +$7.27at 0.889Nothing Ever Happens: July
- +$6.41at 0.942Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?
- +$5.63at 0.914Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 15:50 | Nothing Ever Happens: August | BUY | 0.8199999995 | $30.00 |
| 08-03 20:29 | Nothing Ever Happens: August | BUY | 0.8399999989 | $30.00 |
| 07-19 13:51 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.408 | $4.71 |
| 07-14 21:01 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4329999551 | $5.00 |
| 07-14 20:44 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.9424999951 | $105.00 |
| 07-14 18:56 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5549999759 | $10.00 |
| 07-13 16:44 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6599999604 | $5.00 |
| 07-12 16:02 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 13? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.50 |
| 07-04 00:53 | Nothing Ever Happens: July | BUY | 0.8811881031 | $5.00 |
| 07-02 13:29 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8899999858 | $5.00 |
| 06-24 09:44 | Ebola case in the US by June 30? | SELL | 0.951 | $6.17 |
| 06-17 09:31 | Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | BUY | 0.7599999595 | $3.00 |
| 06-15 17:54 | Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? | BUY | 0.9142381338 | $60.00 |
| 06-15 17:47 | Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | SELL | 0.36 | $3.91 |
| 06-15 13:09 | Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.9199999963 | $10.00 |