0x6D19Fd79C7C84719ea6775A10b26e015cC505dC0-1757318007211
0x6d19fd79c7c84719ea6775a10b26e015cc505dc0
- Realised P&L
- $41.48
- Volume
- $3.0k
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $9.70
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? · Yes | 0.089 | 0.074 | $6.53 | −$1.33 |
| Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? · Yes | 0.093 | 0.040 | $3.39 | −$4.48 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? · Yes | 0.048 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? · Yes | 0.047 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? · Yes | 0.168 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.80 |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? · Yes | 0.043 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? · Yes | 0.313 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$26.00 |
| Gemini 3.5 released by April 30? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$42.77at 0.067Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
- +$41.38at 0.210Will the blue bloc win between 81 and 83 seats in the Norwegian election?
- +$40.37at 0.199Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?
- +$31.40at 0.037Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
- +$12.21at 0.450Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-23 18:13 | Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? | SELL | 0.1044437753 | $48.56 |
| 04-22 14:20 | Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? | BUY | 0.0467196678 | $3.00 |
| 04-22 14:14 | Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | BUY | 0.1065478026 | $2.00 |
| 04-22 14:14 | Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $2.47 |
| 04-22 14:08 | Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? | BUY | 0.3799999772 | $6.00 |
| 04-22 13:54 | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $13.50 |
| 04-22 13:36 | Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY | 0.1676470388 | $5.60 |
| 04-08 18:17 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | SELL | 0.3661596958 | $4.81 |
| 04-08 18:16 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.3799999742 | $5.00 |
| 04-08 18:08 | Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? | BUY | 0.0386184426 | $5.00 |
| 04-08 18:07 | Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? | BUY | 0.299999982 | $10.00 |
| 04-08 18:04 | Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? | BUY | 0.2941176471 | $10.00 |
| 04-08 08:58 | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999456 | $2.82 |
| 04-08 08:57 | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999456 | $2.82 |
| 04-08 08:52 | Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $2.00 |