0x6cda03c0ef236007e70b95f4a708f07bb704dddb
- Realised P&L
- $6.62
- Volume
- $65.42
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $10.15
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar10.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration18.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $132 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.997 | $3.02 | +$1.02 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.905 | $2.38 | +$0.38 |
| Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.260 | $2.00 | +$0.00 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.490 | 0.405 | $1.65 | −$0.35 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · No | 0.650 | 0.365 | $1.12 | −$0.88 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.97at 0.410Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$1.87at 0.510Will Trump say "Melania" during White House Correspondents Dinner?
- +$1.74at 0.420Will Elon post "China" on X this week?
- +$1.74at 0.420Will Trump say "Stop Calling Me" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
- +$1.18at 0.620Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 10:04 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.4899999534 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 02:03 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July? | BUY | 0.2599999272 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 18:01 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.76 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 10:01 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $132 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.6599998944 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 01:57 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999025 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 17:56 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.4099998743 | $1.37 |
| 07-29 20:21 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-28 21:24 | Will Trump say "Transparent" during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.68 | $2.00 |
| 07-28 07:24 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-27 18:01 | Will Trump say "Stop Calling Me" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | BUY | 0.42 | $1.26 |
| 07-27 02:33 | Will Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4089999345 | $1.23 |
| 07-26 14:33 | Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 12+ times during Michigan remarks? | BUY | 0.4699999153 | $1.72 |
| 07-26 02:32 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-25 14:28 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5019999626 | $1.53 |
| 07-25 02:26 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY | 0.619999916 | $1.92 |