sipapi62
0x6837eb515f1f771b89a5c80f964a3f7089a8d9d4
- Realised P&L
- $490.02
- Volume
- $424.4k
- Markets traded
- 87
- Open portfolio
- $80.03
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded87
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.505 | $50.50 | −$1.50 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.850 | 0.845 | $21.13 | −$0.13 |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.213 | $5.34 | −$0.66 |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.075 | $1.88 | −$7.38 |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.034 | $1.19 | +$0.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$284.00at 0.053Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?
- +$228.11at 0.156Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$58.14at 0.350US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
- +$50.12at 0.809Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$50.00at 0.500US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 08:28 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.52 | $52.00 |
| 08-05 08:26 | Will Mohammed bin Salman attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | BUY | 0.0321457143 | $1.13 |
| 08-05 08:25 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $21.25 |
| 05-07 08:38 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.11 | $44.00 |
| 05-07 08:37 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.022 | $66.00 |
| 05-07 08:37 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $50.00 |
| 05-07 08:36 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.022 | $440.00 |
| 05-07 08:36 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.154 | $36.96 |
| 05-07 08:36 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.022 | $550.00 |
| 05-07 08:35 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.023 | $1.1k |
| 05-04 15:57 | Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.002 | $20.00 |
| 05-04 15:56 | Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | SELL | 0.37 | $37.00 |
| 05-04 15:56 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.154 | $38.50 |
| 04-23 08:10 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.16 | $32.00 |
| 04-23 08:10 | Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.78 | $21.54 |