PolyBot

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Traders

0x64cc808bd85b1ddc58a64d9af113c5b0d1befd0d

Realised P&L
$1.25
Volume
$30.67
Markets traded
14
Open portfolio
$8.96

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar4.1%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
BlockerMarkets traded14
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration58.1% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample5 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration17.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? · Yes0.6500.998$1.53+$0.53
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on August 4? · Yes0.7421.000$1.35+$0.35
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? · Yes0.8000.999$1.25+$0.25
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · Yes0.7000.790$1.13+$0.13
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes0.3000.295$0.98$0.02
Will Trump say "Warren Buffett" during remarks in Las Vegas? · No0.7300.710$0.97$0.03
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? · No0.3900.335$0.86$0.14
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $296 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes0.3800.175$0.46$0.54
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No0.6200.245$0.40$0.60
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? · No0.3400.002$0.00$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-04 17:38S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on August 4?BUY0.7419999184$1.00
08-04 09:37Will Trump say "Warren Buffett" during remarks in Las Vegas?BUY0.7299998102$1.00
08-04 01:36Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $296 Week of August 3 2026?BUY0.3799999012$1.00
08-03 17:34US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?BUY0.7$1.00
08-03 09:34Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of August 3 2026?BUY0.29999982$1.00
08-02 20:21Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?BUY0.3899998479$1.00
08-02 13:41Will Grab (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings?BUY0.4699998778$1.00
08-02 00:48Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?BUY0.8$1.00
08-01 16:37Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?BUY0.65$1.00
08-01 14:18Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?BUY0.33999983$1.00
08-01 03:10Another pandemic before GTA VI?BUY0.5$1.00
07-31 19:02Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?BUY0.5099998317$1.00
07-31 11:00Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?BUY0.498999505$1.00
07-29 00:00US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.6199998512$1.00
07-27 09:33Will Trump say "Save America Act" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?BUY0.3899998479$1.00