0x64cc808bd85b1ddc58a64d9af113c5b0d1befd0d
- Realised P&L
- $1.25
- Volume
- $30.67
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $8.96
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.998 | $1.53 | +$0.53 |
| S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on August 4? · Yes | 0.742 | 1.000 | $1.35 | +$0.35 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.999 | $1.25 | +$0.25 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.790 | $1.13 | +$0.13 |
| Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.295 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Trump say "Warren Buffett" during remarks in Las Vegas? · No | 0.730 | 0.710 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.390 | 0.335 | $0.86 | −$0.14 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $296 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.175 | $0.46 | −$0.54 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.620 | 0.245 | $0.40 | −$0.60 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? · No | 0.340 | 0.002 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.56at 0.390Will Trump say "Save America Act" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
- +$1.13at 0.470Will Grab (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$0.00at 0.499Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500Another pandemic before GTA VI?
- +$-0.02at 0.510Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 17:38 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on August 4? | BUY | 0.7419999184 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 09:37 | Will Trump say "Warren Buffett" during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 01:36 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $296 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999012 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 17:34 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 09:34 | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 20:21 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899998479 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 13:41 | Will Grab (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4699998778 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 00:48 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 16:37 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.65 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 14:18 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.33999983 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 03:10 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 19:02 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 11:00 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.498999505 | $1.00 |
| 07-29 00:00 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 07-27 09:33 | Will Trump say "Save America Act" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | BUY | 0.3899998479 | $1.00 |