bullishkirby2
0x5d2b958961e5de4b5b9240abf1ea59146cdbcb8c
- Realised P&L
- $-12.6k
- Volume
- $1.49M
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $243.9k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration71.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.500 | 0.792 | $173.7k | +$64.1k |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.207 | $45.5k | −$64.1k |
| Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? · No | 0.983 | 0.992 | $10.6k | +$100.77 |
| Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? · No | 0.950 | 0.970 | $7.9k | +$158.41 |
| Russia coup attempt in 2026? · No | 0.930 | 0.925 | $2.2k | −$11.89 |
| Nick Fuentes and Sophie Rain confirmed relationship by September 30? · No | 0.990 | 0.975 | $1.8k | −$28.93 |
| Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? · No | 0.961 | 0.955 | $1.5k | −$9.14 |
| Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? · No | 0.890 | 0.945 | $349.28 | +$20.33 |
| Nick Fuentes federally charged? · No | 0.960 | 0.965 | $166.95 | +$0.86 |
| Will $ANSEM reach $1.5 before 2027? · No | 0.939 | 0.952 | $160.45 | +$2.11 |
| Will $ANSEM reach $2 before 2027? · No | 0.959 | 0.957 | $40.19 | −$0.08 |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? · No | 0.798 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.1k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.1kat 0.873Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
- +$2.6kat 0.993MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$1.7kat 0.889Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
- +$400.00at 0.996Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$225.00at 0.999Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-28 17:01 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.996 | $89.6k |
| 07-28 16:37 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.996 | $10.0k |
| 07-25 15:39 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $178.0k |
| 07-21 21:34 | Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? | BUY | 0.9795781133 | $288.05 |
| 07-21 02:08 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $59.8k |
| 07-20 09:36 | Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.963 | $4.5k |
| 07-18 07:47 | Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? | BUY | 0.977 | $4.2k |
| 07-18 07:24 | Will $ANSEM reach $2 before 2027? | BUY | 0.959 | $40.28 |
| 07-18 07:23 | Will $ANSEM reach $1.5 before 2027? | BUY | 0.939 | $158.34 |
| 07-18 07:22 | Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $328.95 |
| 07-18 07:20 | Russia coup attempt in 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $2.2k |
| 07-18 07:19 | Nick Fuentes and Sophie Rain confirmed relationship by September 30? | BUY | 0.9899548625 | $1.9k |
| 07-18 07:16 | Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? | BUY | 0.960825263 | $1.5k |
| 07-18 07:11 | Nick Fuentes federally charged? | BUY | 0.96 | $166.09 |
| 07-10 10:42 | Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $458.54 |