0x586099805b7b6569fa2cd00ebdedddedf60493a2
- Realised P&L
- $-1.14
- Volume
- $63.26
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $15.17
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration59.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $750 Week of August 3 2026? · No | 0.610 | 0.900 | $3.08 | +$0.99 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.725 | $2.91 | +$0.82 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.875 | $2.29 | +$0.20 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.570 | $1.92 | −$0.17 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.390 | 0.345 | $1.85 | −$0.24 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · No | 0.320 | 0.245 | $1.60 | −$0.49 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.114 | $0.79 | −$1.30 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.130 | $0.75 | −$1.34 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? · No | 0.390 | 0.002 | $0.01 | −$2.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.59at 0.470Will Marriott (MAR) Q2 worldwide RevPAR be above $137.5?
- +$1.07at 0.650Will Trump say "Iran" or "Israel" 10+ times during cabinet meeting?
- +$0.00at 0.500New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 16:29 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? | BUY | 0.619999911 | $2.09 |
| 08-04 08:15 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.09 |
| 08-04 00:15 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $750 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999767 | $2.09 |
| 08-03 16:14 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.09 |
| 08-03 08:13 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.2999999282 | $2.09 |
| 08-02 20:26 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999123 | $2.09 |
| 08-02 11:38 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.5199999801 | $2.09 |
| 08-01 23:32 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.3599999242 | $2.09 |
| 08-01 15:04 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.3899999123 | $2.09 |
| 08-01 04:44 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.91 |
| 07-31 20:42 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-31 12:41 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-29 17:57 | Will Trump say "Iran" or "Israel" 10+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.6499997374 | $1.98 |
| 07-29 07:24 | Will Marriott (MAR) Q2 worldwide RevPAR be above $137.5? | BUY | 0.47 | $1.41 |
| 07-28 17:42 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |