kayman123
0x519ae3707bab90e4d8d2c3c08ffef48c5a5c30a3
- Realised P&L
- $-122.99
- Volume
- $60.5k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $32.96
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$33.91at 0.025Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?
- +$32.66at 0.120Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$20.99at 0.013Will Cyprus win the televote for Eurovision 2026?
- +$2.00at 0.140Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- +$0.00at 0.006Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-01 22:52 | Will United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | BUY | 0.1899999794 | $7.00 |
| 07-01 22:51 | Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01? | BUY | 0.1 | $4.00 |
| 07-01 06:41 | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.03 | $76.32 |
| 07-01 06:38 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? | SELL | 0.16 | $16.00 |
| 06-18 22:15 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.022999989 | $2.00 |
| 05-15 23:34 | Will Cyprus win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.003 | $2.13 |
| 05-12 09:05 | Will Azerbaijan win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $4.79 |
| 05-12 09:05 | Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.006 | $5.14 |
| 05-09 16:42 | Will Cyprus win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.0125905305 | $8.72 |
| 05-07 13:29 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.1299999902 | $10.00 |
| 05-06 10:59 | Will Azerbaijan win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.0029999997 | $10.00 |
| 05-06 08:19 | Will Cyprus win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.0140297407 | $24.77 |
| 05-06 08:16 | Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.025 | $20.00 |
| 05-05 19:26 | Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.025 | $20.00 |
| 04-29 15:46 | Will Cyprus win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.008491691 | $14.99 |