0x4fe819b161f6b11970f242ab8f7c51ad7f925b4f
- Realised P&L
- $6.48
- Volume
- $49.81
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $21.10
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar13.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration60.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · No | 0.440 | 0.815 | $4.24 | +$1.95 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 15, 2026? · No | 0.679 | 0.962 | $3.24 | +$0.95 |
| Will Getty Images (GETY) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.440 | $3.05 | +$0.76 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? · No | 0.720 | 0.910 | $2.89 | +$0.60 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.895 | $2.56 | +$0.27 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.835 | $2.45 | +$0.16 |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.585 | $1.72 | −$0.57 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.135 | $0.63 | −$1.66 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.045 | $0.32 | −$1.97 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.58at 0.390SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 6?
- +$2.38at 0.490Will Under Armour (UAA) beat quarterly earnings?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-09 07:56 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.7799997003 | $2.29 |
| 08-08 17:15 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? | BUY | 0.7199999497 | $2.29 |
| 08-08 09:01 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.4899999315 | $2.29 |
| 08-08 00:58 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.29 |
| 08-08 00:35 | Will Getty Images (GETY) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.3299999481 | $2.29 |
| 08-07 15:23 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.6789999656 | $2.29 |
| 08-07 07:17 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399999308 | $2.29 |
| 08-06 23:15 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.29 |
| 08-06 15:09 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 6? | BUY | 0.389999954 | $2.29 |
| 08-06 07:01 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.7799999659 | $2.29 |
| 08-05 23:00 | Will Under Armour (UAA) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4899999315 | $2.29 |