0x4e09f6786ba69f33a9f1dc43bb2e6089278b4e9c
- Realised P&L
- $-10.36
- Volume
- $125.09
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $9.57
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5? · Down | 0.340 | 0.545 | $3.21 | +$1.21 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.830 | $2.72 | +$0.72 |
| Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? · No | 0.590 | 0.575 | $1.95 | −$0.05 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.430 | 0.170 | $0.79 | −$1.21 |
| Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on August 5? · Up | 0.370 | 0.115 | $0.62 | −$1.38 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.095 | $0.28 | −$0.89 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.36at 0.750Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
- +$1.87at 0.450Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?
- +$1.34at 0.560Will Trump say "Toyota" during Michigan remarks?
- +$1.04at 0.660Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?
- +$0.78at 0.720Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 10:11 | Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.3699999112 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 01:55 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.3399999422 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 05:55 | Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.5899999675 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 09:53 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.6099999786 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 09:43 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 00:04 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 16:04 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $2.00 |
| 07-30 07:50 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-29 03:21 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-28 12:37 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-27 22:21 | Will Trump say "Save America Act" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | BUY | 0.619999895 | $1.89 |
| 07-26 01:11 | Will Trump say "Toyota" during Michigan remarks? | BUY | 0.5599999345 | $1.71 |
| 07-25 13:09 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY | 0.7899996998 | $2.00 |
| 07-25 01:06 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30? | BUY | 0.6599996782 | $2.01 |
| 07-24 13:05 | Will Trump say "Transgender" during White House Correspondents Dinner? | BUY | 0.2699999163 | $2.00 |