matureman
0x4d5adbe5be55ca235231134c3455d184be8a02ea
- Realised P&L
- $-367.32
- Volume
- $20.8k
- Markets traded
- 172
- Open portfolio
- $379.02
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded172
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$36.83at 0.246Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
- +$36.09at 0.275Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?
- +$27.86at 0.248Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?
- +$25.56at 0.790US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?
- +$23.44at 0.489Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-08 12:05 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? | BUY | 0.7599999878 | $10.00 |
| 08-08 12:04 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499999921 | $20.00 |
| 08-08 12:04 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $6.25 |
| 08-08 12:04 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? | SELL | 0.23 | $3.96 |
| 08-08 12:03 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? | SELL | 0.38 | $8.16 |
| 08-08 12:03 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $6.00 |
| 08-08 11:04 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.5077405493 | $40.00 |
| 08-08 10:10 | Will Ed Case be the HI-01 Democratic nominee? | SELL | 0.46 | $2.48 |
| 08-08 09:55 | Will Ed Case be the HI-01 Democratic nominee? | SELL | 0.2717876279 | $27.90 |
| 08-08 07:36 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | SELL | 0.93 | $7.64 |
| 08-08 02:09 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6299999961 | $19.52 |
| 08-08 00:58 | Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by August 30? | BUY | 0.5699999976 | $45.00 |
| 08-08 00:51 | Will Ed Case be the HI-01 Democratic nominee? | BUY | 0.55526727 | $60.00 |
| 08-07 23:58 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4109999959 | $50.00 |
| 08-07 23:45 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July? | BUY | 0.509999993 | $35.00 |