0x4d1e7f7ab98bee32b09b1cdf5c5159e73922e714
- Realised P&L
- $-14.98
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 70
- Open portfolio
- $69.16
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded70
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.02at 0.670Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$5.71at 0.510Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance
- +$5.70at 0.700Will Therese Terlaje win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?
- +$5.21at 0.690Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?
- +$4.12at 0.650Will Norway be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 10:10 | Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | SELL | 0.36 | $3.85 |
| 08-02 18:27 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July? | BUY | 0.2429998948 | $1.64 |
| 08-02 07:21 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.8099999399 | $7.14 |
| 08-02 06:28 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? | BUY | 0.9399999835 | $9.13 |
| 08-01 13:43 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | SELL | 0.958 | $8.38 |
| 07-31 07:03 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.9549999572 | $8.36 |
| 07-29 22:44 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | SELL | 0.7 | $7.15 |
| 07-27 18:13 | Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | BUY | 0.3899999682 | $4.17 |
| 07-27 14:23 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.579999903 | $5.14 |
| 07-27 09:27 | Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | SELL | 0.36 | $2.76 |
| 07-25 16:59 | Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4499999369 | $2.14 |
| 07-24 20:10 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31? | SELL | 0.959 | $8.54 |
| 07-23 14:08 | Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | BUY | 0.5 | $3.84 |
| 07-23 11:23 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.7 | $6.73 |
| 07-22 13:33 | Will the Republican Party win the OH-10 House seat? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.98 |