0x4bf8F9E4A7CF5450e8A41a2b4c7B765c3c0F7651-1767732603233
0x4bf8f9e4a7cf5450e8a41a2b4c7b765c3c0f7651
- Realised P&L
- $-4.0k
- Volume
- $374.1k
- Markets traded
- 87
- Open portfolio
- $604.57
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded87
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration94.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$437.76at 0.028Trump out as President by March 31?
- +$230.14at 0.130Will Trump visit China by April 30?
- +$193.40at 0.182Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?
- +$88.15at 0.181Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?
- +$79.44at 0.190Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-23 18:40 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.08 | $176.00 |
| 07-15 12:30 | Trump out as President by July 31? | BUY | 0.005 | $26.79 |
| 07-15 12:29 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.07 | $3.50 |
| 07-15 12:29 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.07 | $24.50 |
| 07-03 11:01 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.07 | $12.87 |
| 07-03 08:22 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? | BUY | 0.044 | $1.67 |
| 07-03 07:19 | Trump out as President by July 31? | BUY | 0.01 | $12.20 |
| 07-03 07:18 | Trump out as President by July 31? | BUY | 0.01 | $40.00 |
| 07-03 07:15 | Trump out as President by July 31? | BUY | 0.0095985042 | $10.00 |
| 06-28 16:16 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? | BUY | 0.28 | $39.20 |
| 06-28 16:13 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.09 | $45.00 |
| 06-28 07:57 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.09 | $45.00 |
| 06-14 15:40 | Trump out as President by June 30? | BUY | 0.007 | $4.19 |
| 06-14 15:39 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | SELL | 0.009 | $3.94 |
| 06-11 20:59 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $209.00 |