fm14
0x4b91aa7e2084de59ba1d966dd9799c306878982d
- Realised P&L
- $348.58
- Volume
- $1.87M
- Markets traded
- 4,206
- Open portfolio
- $278.80
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded4,206
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration26.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration5.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$92.00at 0.070Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?
- +$84.00at 0.081Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
- +$71.39at 0.020Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?
- +$68.56at 0.011Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
- +$59.79at 0.007USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-15 00:51 | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 05-28 17:57 | Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | BUY | 0.021 | $0.11 |
| 05-26 17:00 | Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.011 | $1.10 |
| 05-14 11:25 | Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.011 | $1.10 |
| 05-13 20:47 | Will Luxembourg be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.038965 | $3.90 |
| 05-13 19:22 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.011 | $1.10 |
| 05-13 18:59 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.012 | $1.20 |
| 05-13 18:11 | Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.035 | $3.50 |
| 05-13 14:26 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.024 | $0.48 |
| 05-13 14:05 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.011 | $1.10 |
| 05-13 12:14 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? | BUY | 0.02 | $2.00 |
| 05-13 09:05 | Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.046 | $4.60 |
| 05-13 08:14 | Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $4.50 |
| 05-13 07:34 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.025 | $2.50 |
| 05-13 06:53 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.0321522 | $3.22 |