PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

fm14

0x4b91aa7e2084de59ba1d966dd9799c306878982d

Realised P&L
$348.58
Volume
$1.87M
Markets traded
4,206
Open portfolio
$278.80

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded4,206
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration26.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration5.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0460.114$11.40+$6.80
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? · No0.0400.105$10.50+$6.50
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.0700.084$8.35+$1.35
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · Yes0.0600.077$7.75+$1.75
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? · Yes0.0900.075$7.50$1.50
Will EUR/USD hit 1.05 (Low) in 2026? · Yes0.0300.071$7.14+$4.14
Will John Rose win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election? · Yes0.0500.107$6.42+$3.42
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? · Yes0.0720.040$6.32$5.24
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? · Yes0.0600.055$5.50$0.50
Will the Democrats win the Delaware Senate race in 2026? · No0.0600.055$5.50$0.50
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0800.055$5.50$2.50
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? · Yes0.0900.055$5.50$3.50
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026? · Yes0.0670.054$5.40$1.30
Iran Nuke before 2027? · Yes0.0750.049$4.90$2.56
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? · Yes0.1000.046$4.65$5.35

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-15 00:51US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?BUY0.1$10.00
05-28 17:57Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?BUY0.021$0.11
05-26 17:00Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.011$1.10
05-14 11:25Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?BUY0.011$1.10
05-13 20:47Will Luxembourg be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?BUY0.038965$3.90
05-13 19:22Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.011$1.10
05-13 18:59Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?BUY0.012$1.20
05-13 18:11Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.035$3.50
05-13 14:26Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?BUY0.024$0.48
05-13 14:05Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?SELL0.011$1.10
05-13 12:14Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?BUY0.02$2.00
05-13 09:05Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?SELL0.046$4.60
05-13 08:14Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?BUY0.09$4.50
05-13 07:34Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?BUY0.025$2.50
05-13 06:53Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?SELL0.0321522$3.22