CardinalX
0x4974a18077ae43650531656094a9295da2e5d913
- Realised P&L
- $-33.26
- Volume
- $1.0k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $29.71
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration90.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.354 | 0.747 | $21.07 | +$11.07 |
| Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.268 | 0.145 | $5.42 | −$4.58 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.155 | $3.23 | −$6.77 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.111 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.128 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.087 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? · Yes | 0.054 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$52.89at 0.159Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$3.96at 0.716Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?
- +$1.49at 0.870US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
- +$-1.21at 0.580Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
- +$-3.59at 0.287Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-14 04:58 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.334 | $16.37 |
| 05-14 04:57 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? | SELL | 0.1839437428 | $6.41 |
| 05-09 01:30 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999646 | $5.00 |
| 05-09 01:29 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL | 0.08 | $2.10 |
| 04-14 04:52 | Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.0539385963 | $10.00 |
| 04-14 04:48 | Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | SELL | 0.51 | $8.79 |
| 04-13 02:53 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.3989999862 | $10.00 |
| 04-13 02:52 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8699999678 | $10.00 |
| 04-13 02:52 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999994 | $10.00 |
| 03-31 02:15 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY | 0.3799999833 | $10.00 |
| 03-30 04:18 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1589999886 | $10.00 |
| 03-30 04:18 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.128 | $10.00 |
| 03-30 04:17 | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0869999926 | $10.00 |
| 03-30 04:17 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1109999902 | $10.00 |
| 03-30 04:16 | Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY | 0.3543455041 | $10.00 |