PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Bumblefrog

0x495e26cff8a21b843043c7c4217c13ad5c319a96

Realised P&L
$-34.3k
Volume
$2.06M
Markets traded
18
Open portfolio
$16.5k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded18
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
Not knownProfit concentration
No settled positions sampled.
Not knownSettled sample0 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
CautionOpen concentration99.1% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · Yes0.0870.054$16.3k$9.8k
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? · Yes0.0650.040$141.19$92.18
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 8? · Yes0.0680.000$0.00$32.88
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 6? · Yes0.0650.000$0.00$1.7k
Will Solana dip to $80 on April 25? · Yes0.0520.000$0.00$329.65
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 8? · Yes0.0720.000$0.00$2.3k
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes0.0060.000$0.00$5.2k
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 April 27-May 3? · Yes0.0590.000$0.00$3.10
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10? · Yes0.2290.000$0.00$1.4k
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? · No0.0050.000$0.00$1.4k
Will Solana dip to $70 in April? · Yes0.0280.000$0.00$122.78
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 6? · Yes0.1640.000$0.00$180.93
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? · Yes0.0680.000$0.00$11.2k
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · No0.0020.000$0.00$670.00
Will Solana dip to $80 April 27-May 3? · Yes0.0700.000$0.00$692.06

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-17 19:11Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?BUY0.07$179.91
06-17 11:30US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY0.002$500.00
06-17 11:22US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY0.002$170.00
06-17 02:52Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY0.004$400.00
06-16 18:43Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY0.005$1.1k
06-06 10:48Will Solana dip to $60 in June?SELL0.886$886.00
06-06 05:44Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?BUY0.090154756$227.97
06-06 04:42Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?BUY0.0876870622$2.4k
06-06 04:40Will Solana dip to $60 in June?SELL0.939$1.4k
06-06 04:40Will Solana dip to $60 in June?SELL0.9444683698$1.4k
06-05 18:46Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?BUY0.01$4.00
06-05 18:46Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?BUY0.0088524367$9.54
06-02 13:21MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?BUY0.01$314.04
06-02 12:31MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?BUY0.009$900.00
06-02 10:48Will Solana dip to $60 in June?BUY0.095$376.78