0x44c1bdef9315d9b5514042b0bce4bf0b93a32de4
- Realised P&L
- $-9.30
- Volume
- $86.74
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $19.86
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-10.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration56.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in June? · No | 0.723 | 0.876 | $4.07 | +$0.71 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.595 | $3.92 | +$0.56 |
| Will Grab (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.595 | $3.42 | +$0.43 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July? · No | 0.750 | 0.749 | $2.99 | −$0.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.165 | $2.24 | −$0.75 |
| Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July? · No | 0.680 | 0.560 | $1.70 | −$0.37 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.495 | $1.48 | +$0.46 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? · No | 0.240 | 0.005 | $0.02 | −$1.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.003 | $0.01 | −$1.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.71at 0.430Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting?
- +$1.31at 0.720Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
- +$-0.08at 0.510New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
- +$-1.50at 0.490Will Trump say "Coal" during cabinet meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 11:46 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.99 |
| 08-03 03:46 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999441 | $2.99 |
| 08-02 19:36 | Will Grab (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.52 | $2.99 |
| 08-02 11:26 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.34 | $1.02 |
| 08-02 02:44 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.5099999484 | $3.36 |
| 08-01 18:43 | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in June? | BUY | 0.7229999619 | $3.36 |
| 08-01 10:42 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.24 | $1.02 |
| 08-01 08:40 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July? | BUY | 0.6799999343 | $2.07 |
| 08-01 00:16 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999829 | $3.36 |
| 07-31 16:16 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $1.41 |
| 07-31 07:30 | Will Trump say "Coal" during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.4899999118 | $1.50 |
| 07-30 07:49 | Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.43 | $1.29 |
| 07-29 04:51 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999886 | $4.03 |
| 07-28 16:22 | Will Trump say "Transgender" during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.5499999298 | $1.96 |
| 07-28 12:14 | Will Trump say "Putin" during Fox & Friends appearance? | BUY | 0.7199998106 | $3.65 |