predictooooooooor
0x41b684f33bd7d277ee1af437fa3bb4153e4c8f2b
- Realised P&L
- $321.84
- Volume
- $152.9k
- Markets traded
- 235
- Open portfolio
- $936.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded235
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$194.59at 0.995Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
- +$167.61at 0.123Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?
- +$127.60at 0.315US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
- +$105.04at 0.820Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
- +$102.26at 0.902Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-05 19:36 | Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.96 | $48.00 |
| 07-03 23:04 | Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.889 | $88.90 |
| 07-03 22:59 | Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI? | BUY | 0.58 | $4.06 |
| 06-28 14:37 | Will Brandon Johnson be arrested before 2027? | BUY | 0.79 | $67.00 |
| 06-28 14:34 | Will Brandon Johnson be arrested before 2027? | BUY | 0.77 | $132.22 |
| 06-28 12:51 | Hasan Piker arrested by June 30? | BUY | 0.988 | $49.40 |
| 06-28 12:47 | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.012 | $1.20 |
| 06-28 11:27 | Will Brandon Johnson be arrested before 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $126.97 |
| 06-28 11:24 | Will Brandon Johnson be arrested before 2027? | BUY | 0.8 | $4.80 |
| 06-24 20:57 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? | SELL | 0.3 | $55.69 |
| 06-23 16:09 | Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | BUY | 0.83 | $166.00 |
| 06-22 18:58 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $12.00 |
| 06-21 17:24 | Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | BUY | 0.87 | $21.75 |
| 06-21 17:22 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.14 | $5.70 |
| 06-21 17:19 | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? | BUY | 0.05 | $5.00 |