erxiao
0x3ece17e3a99d4aedbc3f361a2e430aa744a6af79
- Realised P&L
- $-151.48
- Volume
- $483.1k
- Markets traded
- 75
- Open portfolio
- $55.07
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded75
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration60.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President by August 31? · No | 0.994 | 0.994 | $11.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? · No | 0.940 | 0.969 | $10.31 | +$0.31 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.960 | 0.955 | $9.95 | −$0.05 |
| China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.930 | 0.925 | $7.96 | −$0.04 |
| Will Benfica qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League? · Yes | 0.978 | 0.913 | $7.94 | −$0.56 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.965 | $6.92 | +$0.32 |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? · Yes | 0.407 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$42.71at 0.3502024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House
- +$23.33at 0.600Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$23.33at 0.300Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?
- +$1.10at 0.780Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before October?
- +$0.63at 0.941Will the US loose jobs in September?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 01:43 | Trump out as President by August 31? | BUY | 0.9939999998 | $12.00 |
| 08-06 01:37 | Will Benfica qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League? | BUY | 0.9779999979 | $8.50 |
| 08-06 01:32 | Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9599999616 | $10.00 |
| 07-20 07:39 | French election called by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $12.00 |
| 07-20 07:39 | China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.929999993 | $8.00 |
| 07-14 07:42 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.299999982 | $10.00 |
| 07-14 07:42 | Will France win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.4074999808 | $10.00 |
| 06-11 06:13 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.9299998508 | $4.80 |
| 06-11 06:12 | Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? | BUY | 0.9329999953 | $5.70 |
| 06-11 06:03 | Sam Altman in jail by June 30? | SELL | 0.99 | $10.31 |
| 05-27 08:27 | Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9199999944 | $6.60 |
| 05-22 11:24 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.9399999774 | $10.00 |
| 05-16 06:06 | Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.984 | $6.00 |
| 05-16 06:05 | French election called by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9839999992 | $10.00 |
| 04-07 00:53 | Will President Trump sign 4 pieces of legislation into law in March? | BUY | 0.998 | $14.62 |