0x3c60999b38215ddb881c1a5d3380629bcc09c0d7
- Realised P&L
- $21.12
- Volume
- $2.7k
- Markets traded
- 35
- Open portfolio
- $11.66
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded35
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample29 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)27.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.460 | $5.78 | +$4.78 |
| Anthony Fauci charged by December 31? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.310 | $1.15 | +$0.15 |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.215 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.009 | $1.06 | +$0.06 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.065 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.025 | $0.88 | −$0.12 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.205 | $0.79 | −$0.21 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.86at 0.056U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
- +$9.38at 0.984US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$6.69at 0.130Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
- +$2.45at 0.290Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?
- +$1.70at 0.370Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 17:37 | Anthony Fauci charged by December 31? | BUY | 0.2699998542 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 03:30 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? | BUY | 0.0795255406 | $1.00 |
| 07-30 01:15 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | BUY | 0.0559999498 | $1.00 |
| 07-18 19:35 | Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 07-06 11:59 | Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.75 |
| 07-06 00:09 | Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |
| 07-05 22:45 | Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4? | BUY | 0.0429999606 | $1.00 |
| 07-03 00:26 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31? | BUY | 0.9399999624 | $1.00 |
| 07-03 00:26 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.0699999363 | $1.00 |
| 07-01 02:33 | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0299999712 | $1.00 |
| 06-30 06:37 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.2819999219 | $2.00 |
| 06-30 06:37 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.019 | $0.76 |
| 06-30 06:36 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.027 | $1.29 |
| 06-30 06:35 | Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.027 | $3.73 |
| 06-30 06:35 | Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0279999866 | $2.00 |