0x3783d304429894664c0661797bfbC7A679fEF624-1734660003294
0x3783d304429894664c0661797bfbc7a679fef624
- Realised P&L
- $-4.9k
- Volume
- $80.9k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $954.73
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.077 | 0.075 | $293.08 | −$6.92 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.078 | 0.040 | $253.21 | −$246.79 |
| Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.030 | $214.13 | +$14.15 |
| Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.077 | $194.31 | −$5.69 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.375 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1000.00 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.228 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? · Yes | 0.229 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$999.12 |
| Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$499.99 |
| Will Biden pardon SBF? · Yes | 0.067 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$399.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$840.05at 0.567US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$-10.00at 0.004US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$-135.48at 0.310US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?
- +$-392.86at 0.178US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-17 01:16 | Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | BUY | 0.0797694408 | $200.00 |
| 07-15 19:47 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.2368761134 | $400.00 |
| 07-14 20:25 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1959999993 | $200.00 |
| 07-12 02:21 | Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.0767711586 | $300.00 |
| 07-12 02:15 | Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.0301469059 | $100.00 |
| 07-12 02:15 | Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.0269999997 | $100.00 |
| 07-12 01:56 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1989999987 | $100.00 |
| 07-12 01:51 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3749999999 | $1000.00 |
| 07-06 20:52 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1709999996 | $300.00 |
| 07-06 20:51 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0367756254 | $400.00 |
| 04-24 14:49 | Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | BUY | 0.0403867814 | $500.00 |
| 04-24 14:48 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0779999999 | $500.00 |
| 04-07 16:59 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.004 | $10.00 |
| 04-02 01:12 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.5699999991 | $100.00 |
| 04-02 00:45 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.5399999993 | $200.00 |