0x2840d1458f3bba6dfe208c4adaab153258a17167
- Realised P&L
- $-20.25
- Volume
- $1.6k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $1.35
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration42.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)37.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.051 | $0.85 | −$0.15 |
| Will Sevilla win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.002 | $0.50 | −$0.50 |
| Will Lionel Messi score 11+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will England win the World Cup? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the final be FRA vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.87at 0.880Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET
- +$1.40at 0.157Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.13at 0.470Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET
- +$-1.00at 0.290Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET
- +$-1.00at 0.510Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-12 04:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET | BUY | 0.4699998778 | $1.00 |
| 07-12 04:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |
| 07-12 04:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $16.87 |
| 07-12 04:14 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET | BUY | 0.88 | $15.00 |
| 07-12 04:13 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.059999946 | $1.00 |
| 07-12 04:03 | Will Sevilla win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? | BUY | 0.002999997 | $1.00 |
| 07-12 04:02 | Will Lionel Messi score 11+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1799998704 | $1.00 |
| 07-12 03:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET | BUY | 0.2899998666 | $1.00 |
| 07-12 03:56 | Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 07-12 02:26 | Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.0374999822 | $2.00 |
| 07-12 01:31 | Will England win the World Cup? | BUY | 0.209999974 | $5.00 |
| 07-12 01:31 | Will the final be FRA vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.2799998432 | $1.00 |
| 07-12 01:02 | Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.1549999442 | $2.00 |
| 07-12 00:51 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.201 | $6.40 |
| 07-08 09:48 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1569999773 | $5.00 |