0x25fc244669c9757d6b12b7092862976e410cdd0d
- Realised P&L
- $3.3k
- Volume
- $28.8k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $3.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar11.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? · Yes | 0.736 | 0.735 | $3.7k | −$3.76 |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.185 | $35.89 | −$37.83 |
| Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.048 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.4kat 0.402 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
- +$729.41at 0.680US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
- +$644.30at 0.372US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
- +$370.85at 0.350US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
- +$329.97at 0.377US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-28 18:10 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | BUY | 0.7357485268 | $3.7k |
| 06-23 14:06 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? | SELL | 0.201 | $20.50 |
| 06-23 14:05 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? | BUY | 0.1902745098 | $19.41 |
| 06-23 13:32 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL | 0.9746088187 | $2.4k |
| 06-20 19:24 | Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0482775164 | $50.00 |
| 06-18 23:52 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY | 0.4019075117 | $1000.00 |
| 06-02 16:43 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.3579999989 | $100.00 |
| 04-27 18:02 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.1150920091 | $45.66 |
| 04-24 15:00 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799999999 | $1.5k |
| 04-23 16:17 | Will Trump say "Fake News" during healthcare event? | BUY | 0.4070383912 | $106.04 |
| 04-22 13:51 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.995 | $1.0k |
| 04-22 04:03 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $529.97 |
| 04-20 21:24 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999945 | $30.00 |
| 04-19 18:52 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.3769979641 | $200.00 |
| 04-19 18:39 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2913697105 | $104.66 |