0x22d103d4eab4d0027afd7a6e6909eeede7f3a2a2
- Realised P&L
- $-7.62
- Volume
- $80.90
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $14.62
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-9.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration60.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on August 6? · Down | 0.240 | 0.375 | $3.58 | +$1.29 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? · Yes | 0.790 | 1.000 | $2.90 | +$0.61 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · No | 0.780 | 0.915 | $2.69 | +$0.40 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.205 | $2.13 | −$0.16 |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on August 8? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.545 | $1.89 | −$0.40 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · No | 0.550 | 0.345 | $1.44 | −$0.85 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.750 | 0.145 | $0.44 | −$1.85 |
| Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.034 | $0.24 | −$2.05 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? · No | 0.360 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$2.29 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.07at 0.650Will Trump say "Iran" or "Israel" 10+ times during cabinet meeting?
- +$0.68at 0.770Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.75 Week of August 3 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
- +$-0.04at 0.510New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 11:03 | Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on August 6? | BUY | 0.2399999371 | $2.29 |
| 08-06 01:15 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999443 | $2.29 |
| 08-04 05:09 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.54999994 | $2.29 |
| 08-03 21:08 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.75 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.7699999428 | $2.29 |
| 08-03 13:06 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.3299999481 | $2.29 |
| 08-03 05:03 | Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on August 8? | BUY | 0.6599999885 | $2.29 |
| 08-02 21:02 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.7799999659 | $2.29 |
| 08-02 01:14 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.29 |
| 08-02 00:36 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.7899999759 | $2.29 |
| 08-01 16:35 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.3599999057 | $2.29 |
| 08-01 04:58 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.29 |
| 07-31 20:55 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-31 12:52 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-31 00:14 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-30 10:43 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |