0x1f2c58a61f16f8c1104ef1127a975d92ae7c9662
- Realised P&L
- $1.85
- Volume
- $33.77
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $12.90
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.370 | 1.000 | $2.70 | +$1.70 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $385 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.820 | $1.86 | +$0.86 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · No | 0.640 | 0.890 | $1.39 | +$0.39 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 5? · Up | 0.530 | 0.715 | $1.35 | +$0.35 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.785 | $1.33 | +$0.33 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.685 | $1.09 | +$0.09 |
| Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.405 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5? · Down | 0.520 | 0.295 | $0.57 | −$0.43 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · No | 0.310 | 0.175 | $0.56 | −$0.44 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · No | 0.550 | 0.310 | $0.56 | −$0.44 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · No | 0.210 | 0.105 | $0.50 | −$0.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.00at 0.500Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
- +$-0.00at 0.502Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
- +$-0.02at 0.510Another pandemic before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 04:57 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.5299998781 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 20:50 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.52 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 11:43 | Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.4199998236 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 03:41 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $385 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.4399998064 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 19:32 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.2099998677 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 18:21 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.3099998295 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 10:04 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.55 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 23:20 | Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.3699998631 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 06:36 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 22:34 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 14:03 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.63 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 02:07 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5019999699 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 17:34 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 07-29 12:05 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |
| 07-29 02:45 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |