0x1d20b5e24e7c690f0d242a82433eb14bb2386e7e
- Realised P&L
- $1.86
- Volume
- $128.84
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $19.62
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $85 Week of August 3 2026? · No | 0.230 | 0.855 | $7.43 | +$5.43 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.640 | $2.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or less in July? · No | 0.390 | 0.385 | $1.97 | −$0.03 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.835 | $1.89 | +$0.62 |
| Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July? · No | 0.600 | 0.545 | $1.82 | −$0.18 |
| Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? · No | 0.560 | 0.500 | $1.79 | −$0.21 |
| Will China's CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.630 | $1.66 | −$0.34 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · No | 0.240 | 0.130 | $1.08 | −$0.92 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.13at 0.390Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$2.17at 0.480Will Warsh say "Echo of History" during July Press Conference?
- +$1.53at 0.490Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?
- +$1.47at 0.520Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?
- +$0.90at 0.690Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 23:23 | Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or less in July? | BUY | 0.3899998908 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 15:23 | Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? | BUY | 0.5599999664 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 19:21 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 11:20 | Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July? | BUY | 0.59999994 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 03:20 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.2399999184 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 19:19 | Will China's CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026? | BUY | 0.7599998024 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 11:09 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $85 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.229999916 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 03:08 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899998908 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 19:05 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.5599998413 | $1.27 |
| 08-02 10:59 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July? | BUY | 0.4199998758 | $1.42 |
| 08-02 02:32 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.34999993 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 18:30 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999048 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 10:30 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 01:32 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-31 17:29 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |