0x1ca417c20b6a30534cb35face5a435acf617355b
- Realised P&L
- $-38.96
- Volume
- $1.4k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $11.59
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration82.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.029 | $4.30 | +$2.30 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? · Yes | 0.984 | 1.000 | $2.03 | +$0.03 |
| Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.018 | $1.59 | −$0.41 |
| Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.026 | 0.018 | $1.35 | −$0.65 |
| Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.007 | $1.23 | −$1.77 |
| Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.004 | $0.67 | −$1.33 |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.003 | $0.33 | −$1.67 |
| Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.003 | $0.08 | −$0.92 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July? · Yes | 0.205 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.16at 0.789Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.93at 0.957Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?
- +$0.49at 0.670Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?
- +$0.03at 0.982Will Alien arrests in New York hit 5000+ by June 30?
- +$0.01at 0.993Will England win on 2026-06-27?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-23 17:41 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.982999998 | $1.00 |
| 07-23 16:10 | Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.0146061143 | $1.00 |
| 07-23 12:35 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July? | BUY | 0.2049998698 | $1.00 |
| 07-23 09:44 | Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 07-22 20:09 | Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.0154552084 | $1.00 |
| 07-22 19:19 | Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.0330096775 | $1.00 |
| 07-22 19:18 | Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.0109999892 | $1.00 |
| 07-22 19:18 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.9859997614 | $1.00 |
| 07-22 19:17 | Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.0151387573 | $1.00 |
| 07-22 19:17 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2219998521 | $1.00 |
| 07-20 19:06 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0729999331 | $1.00 |
| 07-20 18:06 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0729999331 | $1.00 |
| 07-20 12:18 | Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.0309999705 | $1.00 |
| 07-20 12:17 | Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.0279999733 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 22:03 | Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.0240343118 | $1.00 |