0x1b296Ecf556EF9a93887C82836343f58C1Ff1227-1721909506760
0x1b296ecf556ef9a93887c82836343f58c1ff1227
- Realised P&L
- $932.00
- Volume
- $139.7k
- Markets traded
- 213
- Open portfolio
- $13.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded213
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.469 | 0.635 | $11.2k | +$2.9k |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.741 | 0.731 | $1.9k | −$27.51 |
| National Bank Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton · Joao Fonseca | 0.470 | 0.465 | $102.30 | −$1.10 |
| Will Rafael Jodar Win ATP Montreal · Yes | 0.160 | 0.205 | $63.55 | +$13.95 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$310.55at 0.437Will Ricardo Nunes win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?
- +$301.00at 0.570National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca
- +$233.00at 0.837Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
- +$121.22at 0.110Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?
- +$95.17at 0.344Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-08 21:23 | Will Rafael Jodar Win ATP Montreal | BUY | 0.16 | $49.60 |
| 08-08 18:39 | National Bank Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton | BUY | 0.47 | $103.40 |
| 08-07 14:32 | National Bank Open: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca | BUY | 0.54 | $99.90 |
| 08-05 02:12 | National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca | BUY | 0.57 | $399.00 |
| 08-02 21:14 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.66 | $528.00 |
| 08-02 21:11 | Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? | SELL | 0.992 | $1.5k |
| 07-19 21:40 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.6 | $2.7k |
| 07-19 16:02 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | BUY | 0.4274999995 | $391.41 |
| 07-18 21:42 | Will England win on 2026-07-18? | SELL | 0.89 | $40.45 |
| 07-18 21:01 | Will England win on 2026-07-18? | BUY | 0.219999985 | $10.00 |
| 07-14 22:42 | England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5399999985 | $50.00 |
| 07-14 22:41 | England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5399999981 | $100.00 |
| 07-14 20:30 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.0924999917 | $10.00 |
| 07-14 20:29 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.9009623833 | $540.58 |
| 07-14 19:25 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.3824999979 | $83.03 |