Leon8899
0x19344b25b205a60fa61fa99621f01a22df3c0a4b
- Realised P&L
- $-12.2k
- Volume
- $1.63M
- Markets traded
- 125
- Open portfolio
- $13.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded125
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration87.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.8kat 0.069Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$11.6kat 0.017Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
- +$8.0kat 0.325Will Trump visit China by March 31?
- +$2.6kat 0.225Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$1.8kat 0.775Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-17 02:05 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.049 | $3.45 |
| 07-17 02:04 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.049 | $4.75 |
| 07-05 02:57 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.051 | $1.27 |
| 07-02 09:34 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.056 | $3.08 |
| 06-23 13:53 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.064 | $0.39 |
| 06-17 15:00 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.068 | $20.40 |
| 06-17 14:57 | Will Xi Jinping purge Li Qiang in 2026? | SELL | 0.034 | $12.42 |
| 06-16 08:29 | Xi Jinping out by June 30? | BUY | 0.004 | $5.44 |
| 06-16 01:42 | Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.004 | $0.26 |
| 06-16 01:36 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.067 | $12.06 |
| 06-16 00:46 | Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026? | BUY | 0.035 | $7.07 |
| 06-15 14:34 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.067 | $1.37 |
| 06-15 14:31 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.067 | $17.22 |
| 06-01 08:04 | Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026? | BUY | 0.032 | $4.76 |
| 06-01 07:34 | Will Xi Jinping purge Li Qiang in 2026? | SELL | 0.045 | $5.18 |