cryptadpole
0x1490949a24c0cbca677476ff10dc6f2c8ba31a58
- Realised P&L
- $-120.60
- Volume
- $16.5k
- Markets traded
- 310
- Open portfolio
- $19.48
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded310
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$79.73at 0.811Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?
- +$47.40at 0.650Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by January 31, 2025?
- +$36.55at 0.021Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?
- +$32.89at 0.778Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in December?
- +$28.36at 0.550Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 15:41 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.76 | $3.80 |
| 08-01 09:24 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.007 | $0.07 |
| 07-31 23:03 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.081 | $1.05 |
| 07-31 23:02 | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.005 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 23:02 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.05 |
| 07-31 23:00 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.023 | $1.15 |
| 07-31 23:00 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.008 | $1.00 |
| 07-30 08:04 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $5.67 |
| 07-29 21:09 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.077 | $3.85 |
| 07-29 07:09 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $0.45 |
| 07-29 07:06 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.047 | $0.94 |
| 07-28 10:10 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.025 | $0.55 |
| 07-26 23:18 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026? | SELL | 0.041 | $0.98 |
| 07-26 23:17 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.50 |
| 07-26 14:39 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.66 | $3.30 |