0x1483c098e0b2f666e4b5a50225945cd0020c8de1
- Realised P&L
- $-6.98
- Volume
- $62.99
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $8.75
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-11.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration41.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.585 | $3.00 | +$1.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.999 | $2.59 | +$0.59 |
| Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.340 | $2.00 | +$0.00 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.600 | 0.375 | $1.14 | −$0.69 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.83at 0.390Will Trump say "Save America Act" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
- +$1.80at 0.410Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$0.74at 0.730Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July?
- +$0.00at 0.499Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500Another pandemic before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 08:23 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999422 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 11:53 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $580 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 03:53 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899998908 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 19:34 | Will Grab (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4899999534 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 11:17 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 14:59 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 04:01 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-31 20:01 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999281 | $1.56 |
| 07-31 12:00 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.4099998721 | $1.25 |
| 07-30 16:14 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.4989999935 | $1.99 |
| 07-30 00:44 | Will Trump say "Data Center" during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.30 |
| 07-29 16:10 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-29 05:39 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.35 | $1.05 |
| 07-28 02:51 | Will Trump say "Save America Act" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | BUY | 0.39 | $1.17 |
| 07-27 16:04 | Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Michigan remarks? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.95 |