0x1457566662eccf4f59c0db145b7cfe978d595509
- Realised P&L
- $-8.62
- Volume
- $74.30
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $10.19
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-11.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)15.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.999 | $2.59 | +$0.59 |
| Will monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in July? · No | 0.690 | 0.760 | $2.20 | +$0.20 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July? · Yes | 0.511 | 0.508 | $1.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? · No | 0.550 | 0.315 | $1.15 | −$0.85 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.430 | 0.245 | $1.14 | −$0.86 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.135 | $1.08 | −$0.92 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.74at 0.430Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$1.60at 0.550Will Trump say "Motor City" during Michigan remarks?
- +$0.00at 0.500Another pandemic before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
- +$-0.03at 0.510Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 14:21 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July? | BUY | 0.5109999175 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 06:17 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on August 4? | BUY | 0.2599999272 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 10:15 | Will monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in July? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 02:15 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 02:14 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.5499999725 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 17:53 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 09:38 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 00:21 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.34999993 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 16:18 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 04:05 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999281 | $1.56 |
| 07-31 20:04 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999015 | $1.31 |
| 07-31 12:03 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-29 12:50 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-28 21:40 | Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.6699999498 | $1.87 |
| 07-28 05:20 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |