0x124bd0811d9e0dec0de8261f925afdae7dd60b21
- Realised P&L
- $-1.20
- Volume
- $135.80
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $14.10
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.475 | $3.31 | +$0.31 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July? · Yes | 0.511 | 0.518 | $3.04 | +$0.04 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.750 | $2.92 | −$0.08 |
| Will Trump say "No No No" during remarks in Las Vegas? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.325 | $2.50 | −$0.50 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · No | 0.210 | 0.090 | $1.29 | −$1.71 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.450 | 0.155 | $1.03 | −$1.97 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.08at 0.590Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?
- +$1.95at 0.350Will Trump say "Iran" 3+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner?
- +$1.69at 0.540SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 22?
- +$1.68at 0.530Will Warsh say "Restrictive" during July Press Conference?
- +$1.59at 0.470Will Warsh say "Echo of History" during July Press Conference?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 19:40 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999298 | $3.00 |
| 08-04 11:39 | Will Trump say "No No No" during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.3899999558 | $3.00 |
| 08-04 03:39 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July? | BUY | 0.5109999591 | $3.00 |
| 08-03 19:38 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.2099999489 | $3.00 |
| 08-03 11:16 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699998614 | $3.00 |
| 08-03 03:16 | Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.5199999861 | $3.00 |
| 08-02 19:13 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.4499999625 | $3.00 |
| 08-02 10:59 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July? | BUY | 0.5899999272 | $3.00 |
| 08-01 12:29 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.6999999343 | $2.13 |
| 08-01 04:06 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-31 20:05 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.55 |
| 07-31 12:04 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-31 03:28 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.91 |
| 07-29 23:13 | Will Trump say "Iran" or "Israel" 10+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.62 |
| 07-29 13:37 | Will Warsh say "Restrictive" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.5299999776 | $1.89 |